Monday, January 28, 2008

Some Facts & Some Theory

Unemployment for December continued to be very low in New Mexico and Albuquerque: 3.5% & 3.7% respectively. Both are a small 'uptick' from November but still well below the national average of 5.0%

New home permits were down a very large 60% from December to December. That is a big drop, of course but I consider it good news for everyone but the builders themselves. On the outskirts of Albuquerque and Rio Rancho the builders' excess inventory is slowing up individual home sales. When their inventory is sold off, then the re-sale market will come alive again in those areas.

And, speaking of inventory, that is the key to forecasts about when the market will turn around. Depending on the source, that will occur in the second or third quarter as confidence returns and inventory shrinks.

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