Flatlining

As I've been saying for months, we have missed the excesses of the subprime debacle. But our market is still very sluggish and there is a simple reason. Job growth is lousy. Unemployment remains below the national average but inches up every month. And job growth is essentially non-existent.

• NM unemployment was 4.1% in July -- up from 3.9% in June
• Albuquerque's figures are similar. 4.2% -- up from 4.0%
• Job growth state wide is just .9% for the past year and most of the gains are in the energy intensive area of Farmington.
• By contrast, Albuquerque's job growth for the past year is just about zero (.3%).

By far the biggest problem with our real estate market is a high inventory. No way are we going to reduce that with flat job growth.

Another Reason to Love New Mexico

I've been saying that our market looks pretty good to a lot of others. How would you like to be selling in any of these:

• -28.4% Las Vegas, NV
  -28.3% Miami, FL
  -26.5% Phoenix, AZ
  -24.5% Los Angeles, CA
  -23.2% San Diego, CA***
  -22.9% San Francisco, CA
  -20.2% Tampa, FL
  -17.4% Detroit, MI
  -15.4% Washington, DC
  -14.8% Minneapolis, MN

The above are the markets with the sharpest declines over the past 12 months. Not a Top-10 list to join!

Just Before the 'Fall'

Albuquerque's market was just beginning to cool off in the middle of last year. And, we were a few months from the financial markets melt down. So, looking at year-to-year for the 2nd quarter is interesting. It provides a pretty clear picture of the damage to our market caused by national events. All of the following compare April-June of 2008 vs. 2007:

• Average price: (3.09%)
• Sold properties: (27.83%)
• New listings: (25.67%)
• Days on Market: 71.79%

So, everything is negative but one -- Average Days on Market. But what remains remarkable to me is that in the current horrible national environment, Albuquerque performed the way it always has and avoided the excesses so apparent in other areas. (Would anyone like to try and sell a house in Phoenix?)

Good News in Low Numbers

Housing starts continue to decline in Albuquerque/Rio Rancho. And, except for the builders and their tradespeople, that is good news. A major difficulty with our market at the moment is too much inventory so fewer new homes can only help.

• Permits issued for the metro area (189 in June) were down 15.6% from May.
• By contrast, June of '07 saw 605 permits issued.