Well, maybe...

Business Week, using data from the Brookings Institution, has decided that Albuquerque is among the 40 cities that have been least effected by the recession. Another one of those 'depends on where you are' articles. One thing they did get right without question: all the noted cities had one thing in common - home prices that never got too high or too low.

But -- looking at the facts 'on the ground' the picture is not particularly cheerful.

New Mexico unemployment was 7.7% in September - up from 4.4% for the same month in '08.

Albuquerque/Rio Rancho unemployment was 8% -- up from 4.6% in September of '08.

That is the first time in my memory that this area has had higher unemployment numbers than the state as a whole.

Most worrisome is that job growth is at a 66-year low for the state with no real sign of a turn around yet. Were it not for increases in the government and health sectors, the numbers would be even worse.

House Construction

My thanks to Michael Murphy, whose SalesTraq company keeps a close watch on home builders in the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area. Here is his history of housing starts... not a pretty picture. (The data reflects each year through August):

1995 = 3,221 permits

1996 = 3,268 permits

1997 = 3,232 permits

1998 = 3,438 permits

1999 = 3,594 permits

2000 = 3,281 permits

2001 = 3,964 permits

2002 = 3,918 permits

2003 = 4,549 permits

2004 = 4,892 permits

2005 = 4,706 permits

2006 = 4,088 permits

2007 = 2,933 permits

2008 = 1,596 permits

2009 = 1,061 permits

And, as he points out... we have had the stimulus package in place this year. Ouch!

Moving in Lockstep - Wrong Direction

The good news? New Mexico and Albuquerque/Rio Rancho continue to outperform the nation.

The bad news? That doesn't matter... we are deeply in the hole regardless of what the rest of the country is doing.

U.S. Unemployment Rate: 9.7% in August

New Mexico: 7.5%
Albuquerque/Rio Rancho: 7.4%

Year-To-Year Job Loss

New Mexico: 30,900
Albuquerque/Rio Rancho: 14,500

We have to go back to the mid-40's to find a similar decline in jobs. And, in a state where job growth is traditionally in the 1-2% range, it will take us a long time to get back to a level playing field.

July Unemployment

Unfortunately no surprises -- not much change.

The percentages continue to look better than most of the country and continue to be lousy on an absolute basis. Both New Mexico as a whole and the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho data paint a picture of a work force that has a long way to go to return to normalcy.

New Mexico
2009 July unemployment was 7% -- up from 6.8% in June
2008 July unemployment was 4.2%

Albuquerque/Rio Rancho
2009 July unemployment was 6.8% -- the same as in June
2008 July unemployment was the same as the state as a whole: 4.2%

In both cases, the only sectors performing well are Education/Health Care and Government. All others are in negative territory. And that, of course, means none of the 'building blocks' for a sustained rebound are in place.

Some Good News

Eclipse... the light jet company that went into bankruptcy earlier this year will be starting up again. Much smaller, but still plan on hiring back about 200 people by the end of the month.

Also, the US Forest Service will be adding/transferring about 140 additional jobs to Albuquerque in the near future.

Not Much Change In A Lousy Picture

As I have kept saying, we may be doing better than most states but the unhappy fact is that New Mexico and Albuquerque/Rio Rancho are not climbing out of a very deep hole. New Mexico's overall rate of unemployment inched up again while Albuquerque/Rio Rancho's fell slightly. But, both are more than 2.5% higher than this time last year. And, were it not for two sectors (government and health care) the figures would be much worse.

New Mexico unemployment:

• 6.8% this June
• 6.5% in May
• 4.1% last June

Albuquerque/Rio Rancho unemployment:

• 6.8% this June
• 7.0% in May
• 4.1% last June

In 'real people' terms, that means 26,400 jobs have disappeared in the state, of which 10,700 were within the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area.

It's Nasty Out There

When you remove all the very accurate statements about 'everyone else is worse off', you are left with our reality: a steadily mounting percentage of unemployment and a level of negative job growth that has not been seen in 50+ years.

• New Mexico's May unemployment level is 6.5%
• May of 2008 was 4%
• Job growth during the same time frame was a negative 2.4%

The Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area -- normally much better than the rest of the state -- isn't doing any better this time.

• The unemployment rate was 7% this May.
• May of 2008 was the same as the state's rate of 4%
• Job growth(?) also is worse than the state as a whole at a negative 2.9%.

Yuck! Anyone who things we are out of the current recession is smoking a controlled substance.

You Should See the Other Guy...

One more list that shows Albuquerque is terrific shape -- relative to the others.

The Brookings Institution looked at the nation's top 100 metropolitan areas and concluded that we had the 15th strongest economy during the first quarter of the year. Employment, unemployment rates, wages, gross metropolitan product, housing prices and foreclosure rates were all factored into the study.

But, like the vast majority of the cities in the study, we have not begun to turn the corner, just slowed the downward spiral. In fact, only one metro area (McAllen, TX) saw growth in both employment and gross output during the first quarter.

A long way to go....

Some Signs of Life

Three glimmers of light in the midst of this murky economy:

• UNM is starting a $23 million sceince/math building
• General Mills has broken ground on a $100 million expansion
• Solar Array's first phase (at $170 million) of construction is set for the fall

All mean construction jobs, of course, but also new hires at a time of true stagnation.

Unemployment Flattens Out

Some good news for a change (beyond being a Kiplinger 'hot city'!). Unemployment may have peaked in the region, well below the national average.

• New Mexico's rate for April was 5.8% -- a slight drop from March's 5.9%
• Albuquerque/Rio Rancho looks even better. April shows 6.3% vs. 6.6% in March.

Both compare very favorably with the national average of 8.9% for April.

But, before turning cartwheels down the street, it is worth remembering two more sobering statistics:

• Last year's April rate was 3.9% for the state and 3.7% for Albuquerque.
• We continue to have negative job growth in both the state and the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area. While that continues, not much hope for any sustained improvement.