A Good List to Rank High

Have not seen one of these for awhile - probably because all cities ranked so low it was embarrassing :)...

Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine has Albuquerque ranked #2 for its "10 Best Cities of 2009". It noted both our growing film industry and the success we have had attracting companies like Schott North America in the solar-energy industry.

Unemployment Inches UP -- Again

No surprise... we continue to do better than the rest of the country. But, what we do have is about as bad as it has been for more than 50 years.

For the state as a whole:

• Unemployment was 5.9% in March vs. 3.9% for March of '08.
• Over-the-year job growth was (1.9%) and that translates into over 16,000 jobs lost.
• 1954 was the last time the state's job growth was this bad.
• Just 2 of 13 industry classes posted gains: health care and government.

The Albuquerque/Rio Rancho picture is no prettier:

• Unemployment was 6.6% in March vs. 3.8% a year ago.
• Over-the-year job growth was (2%) -- subtracting 7,700 jobs from the local economy.
• Just 3 of the job classes posted gains: health services, government and information (which is the classification for the growing film industry in the area).

And, believe it or not, our data puts us in a very favorable light vs. other states. We ranked 12th vs. other states. (Only three states and the District of Columbia were in positive territory.)

Yuck!

But you should see the other guy...

Once again, employment figures for New Mexico and the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area are less than thrilling... and far better than most. For February:

• 5.4% for New Mexico as a whole... up from 5.1% in January. Nationally the figure for February is 8.1%
• Albuquerque/Rio Rancho lifted to 5.8% from 5.5% in January.

Job growth is the other area we are 'out-performing' most of the country:

• Over-the-year job growth for the state was a negative 1.4%. Only six states reported any growth at all. But, again, for an area that normally has very little fluxuation, the past year has been worse than any in 17 years.
• Albuquerque/Rio Rancho lost 4,800 jobs -- a drop of 1.2%.
  

February New Home Starts

A small surprise... Rio Rancho permits rose 54% over January for a total of 93.

Albuquerque continued to lag. Only 31 permits were pulled for the entire city.

Most of the permits were for outlying subdivisions so sprawl is still happening... just at a slower pace. My guess is that trend will continue with the availability of up to $8,000 in stimulus money for a home buyer. That is certain to draw a number of first-time buyers into the market and many of those buyers will purchase entry level homes.

Looking Good (In Comparison)

January unemployment statistics are finally out. (I suspect the short month is partly responsible for the delay -- as well as needing to fill requests from the legislative branch which is in the middle of its 60-day session.) As usual with statistics, how you look at them matters a great deal.

• New Mexico's rate is 4.7% while the national rate is 7.6%.

Looks pretty good until you see the steadily increasing local numbers:

• In January of '08, our rate was 3.8%.

Far more damaging, however, is the rate of job growth. Over the past year we are at a (1.0%). That is the first year of negative growth since 1991 -- more than 17 years ago.

The Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area unemployment data mirrors the state:

• January '09 rate is 5.5%
• January '08 was 3.7%
• Job growth was (0.9%). That is the fourth month in a row of year-to-year negative numbers and the rate of decline has been accelerating.
  

Win Some... Lose Some

Intel announced an additional 50 layoffs; Sprint is hiring 40 more. Both in Rio Rancho... but unfortunately not at the same wage level, I suspect.

January Housing Starts

Not much to write home about... and I am sure that is no surprise to anyone.

The entire metro area totaled just 96 permits for January. That is better than December, when only 81 permits were requested. But, it is a far cry from January of '08 when 169 permits were obtained.

Stimulus Package

Initial estimate is that the package will create 22,000 jobs in the state. Where and when, of course, are still to be determined. And, just as important as those two questions is the third one: longevity. If the jobs are temporary 'hits' for construction projects, for example, they will do nothing to address the confidence issue that I think is holding back everyone from purchasing any big ticket items.

Good News for a Change

Intel just announced it will be spending $2.5 billion to upgrade its facilities in Rio Rancho. They intend to use the upgraded 'fab' to manufacture its next generation chip technology.

That is a stimulus package all by itself! From past history, once Intel decides to do something, they are very fast to get going. My guess is that most of that money will be spent in the next 12 months which means about 1,500 construction jobs will be added to the local economy. Since construction is one of the sectors that is hurting the most, that is welcome news indeed.

A Mostly Negative Picture

The December unemployment picture isn't pretty. The only remotely positive statement that can be made is that we are (still) better off than most. While the national unemployment rate is now at 7.2%, New Mexico was 4.9% in December with Albuquerque/Rio Rancho at 5.3%

Sounds pretty good except that one year ago, the figures were 3.2% for New Mexico and 3.4% for Albuquerque/Rio Rancho.

The only areas of growth are in government and education/health services. (Statewide, mining is still showing growth but anticipated layoffs due to the drop in oil prices will erase those gains.)

Every other sector is showing negative numbers: manufacturing, construction, leisure & hospitality, retail, financial and transportation.

Not much to cheer about.