Stimulus Package

Initial estimate is that the package will create 22,000 jobs in the state. Where and when, of course, are still to be determined. And, just as important as those two questions is the third one: longevity. If the jobs are temporary 'hits' for construction projects, for example, they will do nothing to address the confidence issue that I think is holding back everyone from purchasing any big ticket items.

Good News for a Change

Intel just announced it will be spending $2.5 billion to upgrade its facilities in Rio Rancho. They intend to use the upgraded 'fab' to manufacture its next generation chip technology.

That is a stimulus package all by itself! From past history, once Intel decides to do something, they are very fast to get going. My guess is that most of that money will be spent in the next 12 months which means about 1,500 construction jobs will be added to the local economy. Since construction is one of the sectors that is hurting the most, that is welcome news indeed.

A Mostly Negative Picture

The December unemployment picture isn't pretty. The only remotely positive statement that can be made is that we are (still) better off than most. While the national unemployment rate is now at 7.2%, New Mexico was 4.9% in December with Albuquerque/Rio Rancho at 5.3%

Sounds pretty good except that one year ago, the figures were 3.2% for New Mexico and 3.4% for Albuquerque/Rio Rancho.

The only areas of growth are in government and education/health services. (Statewide, mining is still showing growth but anticipated layoffs due to the drop in oil prices will erase those gains.)

Every other sector is showing negative numbers: manufacturing, construction, leisure & hospitality, retail, financial and transportation.

Not much to cheer about.

Still Better Off

November's unemployment data shows that New Mexico (and Albuquerque) continue to dodge the worst of the recession. Albuquerque's unemployment rate for November was 4.4%. It actually dropped from October when the rate was 4.6%.

Next month, I will go into more details about individual sectors of the economy as I take a look at the full year's data.

Happy New Year everyone. It should (has?) to be better :).

How Low Can You Go?

Housing starts for the metro area for November: 64.

A couple of years ago, that was a bad weekend's tally.

Not that it matters a whole lot, but the 'leader' is Albuquerque with 29, followed by Rio Rancho with 23.

And, WE are in GOOD shape!

Every month, the employment picture looks bleaker when compared to the same month last year.

First, the entire state of New Mexico, comparing October '07 to October "08:

• Job growth was .o1% -- the lowest in 17 years
• Manufacturing (including the high-paying tech industry) lost 2,500 jobs
• Construction lost 1,500 jobs
• Leisure and hospitality shed 1,400 jobs
• Financial services also lost -- a total of 700 jobs
  

Keeping us (barely) in the '+' column are:

• Eduction and health services added 4,400 jobs
• Mining (mainly exploration) added 1,000 jobs
• Government added 1,900 jobs
  
• Information (including our growing film industry) added just 100 jobs

When the focus is narrowed to just the Albuquerque area, the picture does not improve. Overall unemployment on a year-to-year basis increased from 3.3% to 4.6%. And, payroll employment fell a total of 1,500 jobs on a year-to-year basis.

Imagine what it must be like in one of the states with real problems!

Some Good News For A Change

General Mills will be expanding its existing Albuquerque plant early next year. The $100 million addition will manufacture snack products. The current plant manufactures breakfast cereals.

When complete, the new facility will employ an additional 60 people. That isn't much in the grand scheme of things but the $100 million construction budget will be very welcome to a construction industry that has fallen on hard times lately.

Another Casualty of the Credit Crisis...

...and this one hurts.

Eclipse Aviation Corporation, the first company to successfully navigate the technological maze and create a very light passenger jet, told its workers today that it could not pay checks for the period just ended on November 12th.

Eclipse has been seeking a loan of between $200-300 million. Not surprisingly, it has been unable to raise the funds.

New Mexico Unemployment - September Data

Normally I give a synopsis of the data but this month the Employment News Release (of 10/23/08) appears to not believe the figures -- so I will quote instead:

New Mexico's seasonally adjusted enemployment rate was 4.0% in September 2008, down from 4.6% in August but up from 3.4% a year ago. The national rate was 6.1%. The state's unemployment rate drop in September likely resulted from a statistical sampling anomaly.

The New Mexico economy is weak but the national economy appears to be even weaker. New Mexico employment sectors with the closest ties to the national economy are among those that are underperforming.

Albuquerque's economy, being connected to the national economy through several large national employers, has started to lose jobs.

Not good news, to put it mildly.

When Bad News Is Good

The foreclosure rate in Albuquerque rose to .9% in August... up from .5% in the same month of 2007. Once again, however, the national figure makes us look like the Belle of the Ball. The August rate for the nation was 4.4%.